Como estoy seguro de que será evidente para la mayoría de los presentes, no soy estadístico ni programador, pero una de mis aficiones es la política. He creado una simulación (muy simple) del colegio electoral de Estados Unidos, que se ve a continuación.
La idea es que si crees que tienes una buena estimación de las probabilidades de los diferentes estados, puedes simplemente realizar una simulación para obtener las probabilidades de victoria de los candidatos. Técnicamente, la forma en que esto funciona es, digamos que usted asume que el candidato R tiene un 45% de victoria en, digamos, Wisconsin. La función SQL rand() debería devolver un valor (a grandes rasgos) menor o igual al 45% aproximadamente el 45% de las veces. Por lo tanto, en un millón de filas se espera que rand() produzca alrededor de 450.000 filas con un 45% o menos. Así que para cada fila en la que esto es "verdadero" asigno puntos del colegio electoral, pero lo hago para el mismo número aleatorio en todos los estados.
Supongo que mi pregunta es, ¿tiene sentido este simple modelo SQL o me estoy engañando a mí mismo pensando que si puedo obtener buenas probabilidades de estado que esto realmente producirá una probabilidad general decente? Las probabilidades de estado reales que tengo en este momento son, por supuesto, completamente ficticias, ya que he estado jugando con diferentes números.
--run once
Create Table database.dbo.Numbers(
[Num] [int] NOT NULL,
CONSTRAINT [PK_Numbers] PRIMARY KEY CLUSTERED
([Num] ASC ))
Insert into database.dbo.Numbers
select top 10000000 row_number() over (order by s1.name)
from sysobjects s1 cross join sysobjects s2, sysobjects s3
--run many times
--input the probability of R win for each state
declare @AK as float
Set @AK = .99
declare @AL as float
Set @AL = .99
declare @AR as float
Set @AR = .999
declare @AZ as float
Set @AZ = .4
declare @CA as float
Set @CA = .01
declare @CO as float
Set @CO = .5
declare @CT as float
Set @CT = .01
declare @DE as float
Set @DE = .01
declare @FL as float
Set @FL = .5
declare @GA as float
Set @GA = .5
declare @HI as float
Set @HI = .01
declare @IA as float
Set @IA = .6
declare @ID as float
Set @ID = .99
declare @IL as float
Set @IL = .01
declare @IN as float
Set @IN = .8
declare @KS as float
Set @KS = .8
declare @KY as float
Set @KY = .7
declare @LA as float
Set @LA = .7
declare @MA as float
Set @MA = .01
declare @MD as float
Set @MD = .01
declare @ME as float
Set @ME = .01
declare @MI as float
Set @MI = .45
declare @MN as float
Set @MN = .5
declare @MO as float
Set @MO = .8
declare @MS as float
Set @MS = .9
declare @MT as float
Set @MT = .99
declare @NC as float
Set @NC = .55
declare @ND as float
Set @ND = .99
declare @NE as float
Set @NE = .7
declare @NH as float
Set @NH = .1
declare @NJ as float
Set @NJ = .1
declare @NM as float
Set @NM = .3
declare @NV as float
Set @NV = .5
declare @NY as float
Set @NY = .01
declare @OH as float
Set @OH = .6
declare @OK as float
Set @OK = .8
declare @OR as float
Set @OR = .99
declare @PA as float
Set @PA = .5
declare @RI as float
Set @RI = .1
declare @SC as float
Set @SC = .99
declare @SD as float
Set @SD = .99
declare @TN as float
Set @TN = .8
declare @TX as float
Set @TX = .55
declare @UT as float
Set @UT = .99
declare @VA as float
Set @VA = .1
declare @VT as float
Set @VT = .2
declare @WA as float
Set @WA = .1
declare @WI as float
Set @WI = .6
declare @WV as float
Set @WV = .99
declare @WY as float
Set @WY = .9
declare @DC as float
Set @DC = .01
declare @ME1 as float
set @ME1 = .2
declare @ME2 as float
set @ME2 = .8
declare @NE1 as float
set @NE1 = .99
declare @NE2 as float
set @NE2 = .5
declare @NE3 as float
set @NE3 = .99
Select F.WinLose,cast(F.Count as float) / cast(F.Sumtotal as float) as Chance
from
(
Select E.WinLose,E.Count,sum(E.Count) over () as Sumtotal
from
(Select D.WinLose,count(D.Winlose) as Count
from
(Select C.Num,(case when (C.[R-AK]+C.[R-AL]+C.[R-AR]+C.[R-AZ]+C.[R-CA]+C.[R-CO]+C.[R-CT]+C.[R-DC]+C.[R-DE]+C.[R-FL]+C.[R-GA]
+C.[R-HI]+c.[R-IA]+c.[R-ID]+c.[R-IL]+c.[R-IN]+c.[R-KS]+c.[R-KY]+c.[R-LA]+c.[R-MA]+c.[R-MD]+c.[R-ME]+c.[R-MI]+c.[R-MN]+c.[R-MO]
+c.[R-MS]+c.[R-MT]+c.[R-NC]+c.[R-ND]+c.[R-NE]+c.[R-NH]+c.[R-NJ]+c.[R-NM]+c.[R-NV]+c.[R-NY]+c.[R-OH]+c.[R-OK]+c.[R-OR]+c.[R-PA]+c.[R-RI]+
c.[R-SC]+c.[R-SD]+c.[R-TN]+c.[R-TX]+c.[R-UT]+c.[R-VA]+c.[R-VT]+c.[R-WA]+c.[R-WI]+c.[R-WV]+c.[R-WY]+c.[R-NE1]+c.[R-NE2]+c.[R-NE3]+c.[R-ME1]+c.[R-ME2])
>= 269 then 'Win' else 'NotWin' end) as WinLose
from
(Select B.Num,(case when B.AK = 'TRUE' then 3 else 0 end) as 'R-AK',
(case when B.AL = 'TRUE' then 9 else 0 end) as 'R-AL',
(case when B.AR = 'TRUE' then 6 else 0 end) as 'R-AR',
(case when B.AZ = 'TRUE' then 11 else 0 end) as 'R-AZ',
(case when B.CA = 'TRUE' then 55 else 0 end) as 'R-CA',
(case when B.CO = 'TRUE' then 9 else 0 end) as 'R-CO',
(case when B.CT = 'TRUE' then 7 else 0 end) as 'R-CT',
(case when B.DE = 'TRUE' then 3 else 0 end) as 'R-DE',
(case when B.FL = 'TRUE' then 29 else 0 end) as 'R-FL',
(case when B.GA = 'TRUE' then 16 else 0 end) as 'R-GA',
(case when B.HI = 'TRUE' then 4 else 0 end) as 'R-HI',
(case when B.IA = 'TRUE' then 6 else 0 end) as 'R-IA',
(case when B.ID = 'TRUE' then 4 else 0 end) as 'R-ID',
(case when B.IL = 'TRUE' then 20 else 0 end) as 'R-IL',
(case when B.[IN] = 'TRUE' then 11 else 0 end) as 'R-IN',
(case when B.KS = 'TRUE' then 6 else 0 end) as 'R-KS',
(case when B.KY = 'TRUE' then 8 else 0 end) as 'R-KY',
(case when B.LA = 'TRUE' then 8 else 0 end) as 'R-LA',
(case when B.MA = 'TRUE' then 11 else 0 end) as 'R-MA',
(case when B.MD = 'TRUE' then 10 else 0 end) as 'R-MD',
(case when B.MI = 'TRUE' then 16 else 0 end) as 'R-MI',
(case when B.MN = 'TRUE' then 10 else 0 end) as 'R-MN',
(case when B.MO = 'TRUE' then 10 else 0 end) as 'R-MO',
(case when B.MS = 'TRUE' then 6 else 0 end) as 'R-MS',
(case when B.MT = 'TRUE' then 3 else 0 end) as 'R-MT',
(case when B.NC = 'TRUE' then 15 else 0 end) as 'R-NC',
(case when B.ND = 'TRUE' then 3 else 0 end) as 'R-ND',
(case when B.NH = 'TRUE' then 4 else 0 end) as 'R-NH',
(case when B.NJ = 'TRUE' then 14 else 0 end) as 'R-NJ',
(case when B.NM = 'TRUE' then 5 else 0 end) as 'R-NM',
(case when B.NV = 'TRUE' then 6 else 0 end) as 'R-NV',
(case when B.NY = 'TRUE' then 29 else 0 end) as 'R-NY',
(case when B.OH = 'TRUE' then 18 else 0 end) as 'R-OH',
(case when B.OK = 'TRUE' then 7 else 0 end) as 'R-OK',
(case when B.[OR] = 'TRUE' then 7 else 0 end) as 'R-OR',
(case when B.PA = 'TRUE' then 20 else 0 end) as 'R-PA',
(case when B.RI = 'TRUE' then 4 else 0 end) as 'R-RI',
(case when B.SC = 'TRUE' then 9 else 0 end) as 'R-SC',
(case when B.SD = 'TRUE' then 3 else 0 end) as 'R-SD',
(case when B.TN = 'TRUE' then 11 else 0 end) as 'R-TN',
(case when B.TX = 'TRUE' then 38 else 0 end) as 'R-TX',
(case when B.UT = 'TRUE' then 6 else 0 end) as 'R-UT',
(case when B.VA = 'TRUE' then 13 else 0 end) as 'R-VA',
(case when B.VT = 'TRUE' then 3 else 0 end) as 'R-VT',
(case when B.WA = 'TRUE' then 12 else 0 end) as 'R-WA',
(case when B.WI = 'TRUE' then 10 else 0 end) as 'R-WI',
(case when B.WV = 'TRUE' then 5 else 0 end) as 'R-WV',
(case when B.WY = 'TRUE' then 3 else 0 end) as 'R-WY',
(case when B.DC = 'TRUE' then 3 else 0 end) as 'R-DC',
(case when B.NE = 'TRUE' then 2 else 0 end) as 'R-NE',
(case when B.ME = 'TRUE' then 2 else 0 end) as 'R-ME',
(case when B.ME1 = 'TRUE' then 1 else 0 end) as 'R-ME1',
(case when B.ME2 = 'TRUE' then 1 else 0 end) as 'R-ME2',
(case when B.NE1 = 'TRUE' then 1 else 0 end) as 'R-NE1',
(case when B.NE2 = 'TRUE' then 1 else 0 end) as 'R-NE2',
(case when B.NE3 = 'TRUE' then 1 else 0 end) as 'R-NE3'
from
(Select A.Num,A.RanSelection,
(Case when A.RanSelection <= @AK then 'TRUE' else 'FALSE' end) as AK,
(Case when A.RanSelection <= @AL then 'TRUE' else 'FALSE' end) as AL,
(Case when A.RanSelection <= @AR then 'TRUE' else 'FALSE' end) as AR,
(Case when A.RanSelection <= @AZ then 'TRUE' else 'FALSE' end) as AZ,
(Case when A.RanSelection <= @CA then 'TRUE' else 'FALSE' end) as CA,
(Case when A.RanSelection <= @CO then 'TRUE' else 'FALSE' end) as CO,
(Case when A.RanSelection <= @CT then 'TRUE' else 'FALSE' end) as CT,
(Case when A.RanSelection <= @DE then 'TRUE' else 'FALSE' end) as DE,
(Case when A.RanSelection <= @FL then 'TRUE' else 'FALSE' end) as FL,
(Case when A.RanSelection <= @GA then 'TRUE' else 'FALSE' end) as GA,
(Case when A.RanSelection <= @HI then 'TRUE' else 'FALSE' end) as HI,
(Case when A.RanSelection <= @IA then 'TRUE' else 'FALSE' end) as IA,
(Case when A.RanSelection <= @ID then 'TRUE' else 'FALSE' end) as ID,
(Case when A.RanSelection <= @IL then 'TRUE' else 'FALSE' end) as IL,
(Case when A.RanSelection <= @IN then 'TRUE' else 'FALSE' end) as "IN",
(Case when A.RanSelection <= @KS then 'TRUE' else 'FALSE' end) as KS,
(Case when A.RanSelection <= @KY then 'TRUE' else 'FALSE' end) as KY,
(Case when A.RanSelection <= @LA then 'TRUE' else 'FALSE' end) as LA,
(Case when A.RanSelection <= @MA then 'TRUE' else 'FALSE' end) as MA,
(Case when A.RanSelection <= @MD then 'TRUE' else 'FALSE' end) as MD,
(Case when A.RanSelection <= @ME then 'TRUE' else 'FALSE' end) as ME,
(Case when A.RanSelection <= @MI then 'TRUE' else 'FALSE' end) as MI,
(Case when A.RanSelection <= @MN then 'TRUE' else 'FALSE' end) as MN,
(Case when A.RanSelection <= @MO then 'TRUE' else 'FALSE' end) as MO,
(Case when A.RanSelection <= @MS then 'TRUE' else 'FALSE' end) as MS,
(Case when A.RanSelection <= @MT then 'TRUE' else 'FALSE' end) as MT,
(Case when A.RanSelection <= @NC then 'TRUE' else 'FALSE' end) as NC,
(Case when A.RanSelection <= @ND then 'TRUE' else 'FALSE' end) as ND,
(Case when A.RanSelection <= @NE then 'TRUE' else 'FALSE' end) as NE,
(Case when A.RanSelection <= @NH then 'TRUE' else 'FALSE' end) as NH,
(Case when A.RanSelection <= @NJ then 'TRUE' else 'FALSE' end) as NJ,
(Case when A.RanSelection <= @NM then 'TRUE' else 'FALSE' end) as NM,
(Case when A.RanSelection <= @NV then 'TRUE' else 'FALSE' end) as NV,
(Case when A.RanSelection <= @NY then 'TRUE' else 'FALSE' end) as NY,
(Case when A.RanSelection <= @OH then 'TRUE' else 'FALSE' end) as OH,
(Case when A.RanSelection <= @OK then 'TRUE' else 'FALSE' end) as OK,
(Case when A.RanSelection <= @OR then 'TRUE' else 'FALSE' end) as "OR",
(Case when A.RanSelection <= @PA then 'TRUE' else 'FALSE' end) as PA,
(Case when A.RanSelection <= @RI then 'TRUE' else 'FALSE' end) as RI,
(Case when A.RanSelection <= @SC then 'TRUE' else 'FALSE' end) as SC,
(Case when A.RanSelection <= @SD then 'TRUE' else 'FALSE' end) as SD,
(Case when A.RanSelection <= @TN then 'TRUE' else 'FALSE' end) as TN,
(Case when A.RanSelection <= @TX then 'TRUE' else 'FALSE' end) as TX,
(Case when A.RanSelection <= @UT then 'TRUE' else 'FALSE' end) as UT,
(Case when A.RanSelection <= @VA then 'TRUE' else 'FALSE' end) as VA,
(Case when A.RanSelection <= @VT then 'TRUE' else 'FALSE' end) as VT,
(Case when A.RanSelection <= @WA then 'TRUE' else 'FALSE' end) as WA,
(Case when A.RanSelection <= @WI then 'TRUE' else 'FALSE' end) as WI,
(Case when A.RanSelection <= @WV then 'TRUE' else 'FALSE' end) as WV,
(Case when A.RanSelection <= @WY then 'TRUE' else 'FALSE' end) as WY,
(Case when A.RanSelection <= @DC then 'TRUE' else 'FALSE' end) as DC,
(Case when A.RanSelection <= @ME1 then 'TRUE' else 'FALSE' end) as ME1,
(Case when A.RanSelection <= @ME2 then 'TRUE' else 'FALSE' end) as ME2,
(Case when A.RanSelection <= @NE1 then 'TRUE' else 'FALSE' end) as NE1,
(Case when A.RanSelection <= @NE2 then 'TRUE' else 'FALSE' end) as NE2,
(Case when A.RanSelection <= @NE3 then 'TRUE' else 'FALSE' end) as NE3
from
(SELECT TOP 1000000 [Num],RAND(convert(varbinary, newid())) as RanSelection
FROM [Database].[dbo].[Numbers])A)B)C)D
group by D.WinLose)E
)F
```
